John Hood | Suburban surge drove GOP success

RALEIGH — North Carolina has lengthy been a political battleground — however the form of that battlefield has modified considerably over time.

Fifteen years in the past, for instance, Democrat Mike Easley was finishing his final yr as our state’s governor. He’d cruised to reelection in 2004 with roughly 56% of the vote. Democrats have been firmly answerable for each chambers of the North Carolina legislature, and of 60 of the state’s 100 county commissions. Additionally they comprised a majority of the state’s U.S. Home delegation.

On the identical time, nevertheless, Republicans comprised a majority of the North Carolina Supreme Court docket and held each of the state’s U.S. Senate seats. Whilst Gov. Easley was successful his reelection for governor, President George W. Bush gained reelection with the identical share of the vote in North Carolina: 56%.

By way of get together registration, Democrats fashioned a plurality in March 2008 at 45%, with Republicans at 34% and 21% registered as unaffiliated. As a result of a lot of these Democrats and unaffiliated voters have been centrist in inclination and keen to separate their tickets, nevertheless, each events had the potential to draw giant successful majorities relying on the precise races and candidates concerned.

At the moment’s voters in North Carolina appears to be like very completely different. It’s bigger — 7.2 million registered voters as of March 2023, vs. 5.7 million in March 2008 — and fewer explicitly partisan. Unaffiliated voters comprise a plurality at 36%, with Democrats at 33%, Republicans at 30%, and the remaining 1% consisting primarily of Libertarians.

By way of sheer numbers, there are roughly 126,000 fewer registered Democrats as we speak than in 2008. There are 257,000 extra Republicans and a whopping 1.4 million extra unaffiliated voters.

So, does that make North Carolina a markedly extra Republican state than it was 15 years in the past? You may actually advance such an argument. Along with as soon as once more holding each U.S. Senate seats, Republicans type majorities in each chambers of our legislature, the statewide places of work that type our Council of State, our U.S. Home delegation, our state supreme court docket, and our state court docket of appeals. The GOP additionally controls 67 of our 100 county commissions and an unprecedented variety of different native places of work.

Nonetheless, our state’s elections stay remarkably aggressive. Statewide elections are sometimes settled by a comparatively small variety of votes, as are many district and native races. And for all its success, the GOP has struggled to win the important thing places of work of governor and legal professional basic.

We nonetheless have swing voters in North Carolina, and typically ticket-splitting can nonetheless be decisive. In 2020, for instance, fairly a couple of voters opted to reelect Roy Cooper whereas additionally selecting Donald Trump for president and Thom Tillis for U.S. Senate. However the days of 56% majorities in high-profile races are most likely over. Cooper received 51.5% of the vote in 2020, whereas Trump received 50% and Tillis 49%.

Now, in case you fixate an excessive amount of on the statewide traits, you miss dramatic adjustments on the native degree. Contemplate that in 2008, Republicans held a majority on Wake County’s board of commissioners. Republicans have been additionally answerable for a number of different county or municipal governments in city areas.

Since 2008, the precise variety of Republicans, not simply their share of the voters, has gone down in such populous counties as Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, Durham, Cumberland, and Buncombe. In most of them, the prospect of Republicans successful greater than a handful of native places of work now appears fanciful. Each present commissioner in Wake County is a Democrat, for example.

So, how has North Carolina an entire change into much less hospitable to Democratic candidates? As a result of outdoors of our city cores, Republican power has surged. No, I’m not simply speaking about rural areas, which taken collectively signify a declining share of the state’s voters. The larger political story is the fast improve of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in fast-growing suburban and exurban counties comparable to Union, Iredell, Cabarrus, Gaston, Johnston, Franklin, Harnett, Alamance, Brunswick, and Pender.

Lots of them was Democratic strongholds. No extra.